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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."